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It Feels As If The Housing Market Is Beginning To Cool Off

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

It now feels as if the housing market is beginning to cool off in the Eugene and Springfield area. Homes are now taking longer to sell, and for the most part, the rush of buyers looking at new homes coming on the market seems to have gone away. At the same time, home prices remain stubbornly high, and mortgage interest rates have increased instead of decreased. If the inventory of homes for sale does continue to increase, it's a sure bet that home prices will begin to decrease. Within a few more weeks, we will certainly have a very good idea as to where the housing market is heading in the forseeable future. The following is a recent update on the national housing market from "Realtor.com."

The spring housing market is officially over, and home sales fizzled out in the last full month of the season.

Sales of existing homes shrank by 0.7% in May compared with April, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors®.

Sales also fell annually, dipping 2.8% from May 2023 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million homes.

Yet low inventory might be the least of homebuyers’ hurdles as the summer market heats up. Median home prices skyrocketed 5.8% annually from $385,800 in May 2023 to $419,300—the highest home price ever recorded. May also marks the 11th month in a row of annual price increases.

“Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a statement. “The mortgage payment for a typical home today is more than double that of homes purchased before 2020.”

Stubborn mortgage rates continue to toggle above and below the 7% benchmark, averaging 6.87% for 30-year fixed loans in the week ending June 20, according to Freddie Mac.

Sluggish sales can be traced back to these high rates, which have many sellers “locked in” to their existing low mortgage rates and unwilling to trade them for a rate that could be double what they currently pay.

“The combination of high home prices and elevated mortgage rates has proved to be challenging for the housing market, weighing down sales activity,” Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale said in a statement.

Who bought homes in May

High mortgage rates did not deter first-time homebuyers in May, who accounted for 31% of sales compared with 33% in April and 28% in May 2023.

Of the total home sales, 28% were all-cash buyers, the same percentage as last month’s. Individual investors or second-home buyers, a large percentage of cash buyers, bought 16% of existing homes in May, which matched the 16% seen in April and up from 15% in May 2023.

Only 2% of sales were foreclosures and short sales, a number that remained unchanged from last month and last year.

Where home sales are rising and falling the most

Sales slipped modestly from April to May in the South, yet remained exactly the same for the same period in the West, Northeast, and South. The Midwest was the only region that saw home sales rise year over year.

Sales declined by 1.6% in the South month over month, falling 5.1% from the prior year. The median price in the South was $374,300, up 3.6% from last year.

The Northeast saw sales slip 4% from May 2023. The median price was $479,200, up 9.2% from the prior year.

The existing-home sales in the West dropped 1.3% from the year prior. The median price reached $632,900, a 5.5% jump from May 2023.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales were unchanged from April to May but were up 1% from one year ago. The median price was $317,100, up 6.4% from May 2023.

“Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months,” said Yun.

An opportunity for buyers

The total number of unsold existing homes increased by 6.7% from the previous month, reaching 1.28 million at the end of May. Based on the current monthly sales pace, this amount represents a 3.7-month supply of available homes.

“Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions,” said Yun.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

93048 Hwy 99 S, Junction City, OR 

Price: $450,000    Beds: 3    Baths: 1.0    Sq Ft: 1205

Great potential. House is in good shape but needs cosmetics. Sale includes a 3 bay, 35'X 55" shop. Property is currently in county, but in UGB. Could easily be annexed and connected to city services. Potential for being re-zoned to commercial. The l... View this property >> 

 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Mortgage Interest Rates Dipped Slightly

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Finally, some good news about the Real Estate market, both locally and nationally. Mortgage interest rates dipped slightly last week. Any reduction in mortgage loan rates is welcome news. Hopefully, this trend will continue and bring some fresh air into a stagnant market. In the Eugene and Springfield area, we are seeing more homes hit the market, which will help a market that has had extremely low inventory for several years. Only time will tell if this is a blip or if this trend will continue. Right now, signs are pointing to an improving summer housing market. The following is a recent article from "Realtor.com."

Mortgage rates dipped further this week, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan falling from 6.99% last week to 6.95% for the week ending June 13, according to Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates continued to fall back this week as incoming data suggests the economy is cooling to a more sustainable level of growth,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Top-line inflation numbers were flat, but shelter inflation, which measures rent and homeownership costs, increased, showing that housing affordability continues to be an ongoing impediment for buyers on the house hunt.”

Mortgage rates have been perched on a 7% seesaw, rising just above or below the benchmark for almost two months, presenting a major financial hurdle for would-be buyers.

Still, with just one week left in the spring housing market, many sellers are forging ahead the instant they see rates fall, as they did last week.

“This past week, mortgage rates dropped below 7% once again,” says Realtor.com® senior research scientist Jiayi Xu. “As a result, more home sellers returned to the market, leading to an increase in new listings compared to the previous week.”

Fresh listings jumped for the week ending June 8, with 8.0% more new listings hitting the market compared with a year ago. (The prior week saw only a 2.1% rise in new listings year over year.)

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

766 S 47th Pl, Springfield, OR 

Price: $849,900    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.5    Sq Ft: 2840

This beautifully updated home is nestled on a private 3/4 acre lot with filtered views through the trees. Designed for either main level living or a great setup for separation of space with additional bedrooms and a bonus room upstairs and a large fam... View this property >> 

 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

Do We Have A Housing Crisis?

by Galand Haas

Good Monday Morning!

Do we have a housing crisis in the Eugene and Springfield area? We have a crisis nationally, and I suspect that there is a major housing crisis in the Eugene and Springfield area. Rising home prices, high property taxes, and now higher mortgage interest rates have made home ownership nearly impossible for many people in our area. Have you wondered why there are apartment buildings springing up everywhere? Home affordability in our community is a true crisis. One of the major factors contributing to high home prices in the Eugene and Springfield area is the lack of land that is readily available to build on. The lack of expansion along the Eugene urban growth boundary has created a lack of affordable building lots. There is just not enough land remaining that allows builders to build affordable housing. Lack of development area means that the price of any existing building lots is extremely high. On top of this, system development charges for new construction are extremely high. The combination of this, along with high labor and material costs, has pushed housing costs to a level that is not affordable to most in the average income brackets.  This is a problem that has been brewing in our area for years and is now at a crisis level. The following is an article from "Realtor.com" that goes over the housing crisis on a national level.

The United States needs at least 1.5 million additional homes, and likely many more, to relieve the nation’s housing shortage, according to Freddie Mac.

In the first quarter of 2024, the homeowner vacancy rate dropped to 0.8% from 0.9% the prior quarter, the mortgage buyer said in a recent report on the housing market. That’s well below the 1.6% average vacancy rate recorded from 1994 to 2003, the period the report uses as a basis for comparison, and near the all-time low hit earlier last year.

Meanwhile, the rental vacancy rate remained flat for the third straight quarter at 6.6%, down from 8.2% during the historical comparison period. Rental vacancies touched four-decade lows in 2021 and 2022 and crept up slightly last year.

To bring the vacancy rate, both rental and homeowner, back in line with historical averages, the U.S. would need to add an additional 1.5 million vacant for-sale and for-rent homes,” the report says. “Without such units, the pressure on housing markets will persist.”

Despite higher mortgage rates, the housing market has remained incredibly tight due to a shortage of homes for sale. Earlier this week, the benchmark index tracking U.S. home prices hit a new all-time high, after surging 47% in the past four years.

The reason: Demand for homes continues to far outpace the available supply, pushing prices higher.

Homebuilders have responded by constructing many new units, but have failed to keep pace with demand. Freddie Mac estimates the nation’s current housing stock at 146.4 million units, an increase of 1.6 million units from one year ago.

However, most of those newly built units were rentals, the report notes. Rentals accounted for about 1 million of the units constructed over the past year, while owner-occupied homes grew by just 600,000.

Homebuilders blame stifling regulations

The National Association of Home Builders has blamed a number of factors for stifling construction, including excessive regulations, inefficient local zoning rules, and costly building codes.

“With a nationwide shortage of roughly 1.5 million homes, the lack of housing units is the primary cause of growing housing affordability challenges,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz in comments last week. “Policymakers at all levels of government need to enact policy changes that will allow builders to construct more homes, such as speeding up permit approval times, providing resources for skilled labor training, and fixing building material supply chains.”

The Freddie Mac report warns that the 1.5 million estimated shortfall of homes “is almost certainly a dramatic underestimate of the total housing shortage” because it fails to account for latent demand and vacant housing that is not on the market for sale or rent.

In a 2021 report, the government-backed mortgage buyer estimated that the U.S. needed an additional 3.8 million units to achieve a target vacancy rate of 13%. That report cited a long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes, and an even sharper decline in the construction of entry-level homes of less than 1,400 square feet.

Construction of entry-level homes has declined on an absolute and percentage basis since the early 1980s, and took another leg down after the Great Recession. In 2020, Freddie Mac estimates there were only 65,000 new entry-level homes completed—less than one-fifth of the entry-level homes constructed annually in the late 1970s.

More recently, builders have started to pivot to building smaller homes in an effort to lure buyers frustrated by high prices and mortgage rates. In April, the median new-home sale price was $433,500, down 1.4% from March, but up 3.9% compared with a year ago, according to NAHB.

Have An Awesome Week!

Stay Healthy! Stay Safe! Remain Positive! Trust in God!

THIS WEEKS HOT HOME LISTING!

5580 Tradition Alley, Eugene, OR 

Price: $489,900    Beds: 3    Baths: 2.0    Sq Ft: 1812

This single level home has been tastefully updated and is located in a quiet West Eugene neighborhood. Features include a newer 3-head ductless heat pump AC/heating system, a spacious living room, large bedrooms & a 2-car garage with built-in storag... View this property >> 

 

AND HERE'S YOUR MONDAY MORNING COFFEE!!

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Haas Real Estate Team
Keller Williams Realty Eugene and Springfield
2645 Suzanne Way Suite 2A
Eugene OR 97408
Direct: (541) 349-2620
Fax: 541-687-6411

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